Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 0.334154 0.383993 0.438145 0.501279 0.572785 0.651182 0.743566
2025-07-20 0.264479 0.330586 0.408043 0.505211 0.623540 0.762636 0.938199
2025-07-27 0.217876 0.294393 0.390495 0.519375 0.686921 0.896505 1.177581
2025-08-03 0.182182 0.265129 0.376390 0.535242 0.754678 1.045331 1.457326
2025-08-10 0.143534 0.224770 0.340998 0.517366 0.775673 1.137021 1.676817
2025-08-17 0.111621 0.187818 0.303911 0.490751 0.780153 1.206541 1.875773
2025-08-24 0.090954 0.163874 0.281783 0.482316 0.809530 1.315247 2.145771
2025-08-31 0.074442 0.143332 0.261302 0.472829 0.835480 1.421813 2.426466
2025-09-07 0.064372 0.131877 0.253807 0.483357 0.895131 1.588738 2.823657
2025-09-14 0.052190 0.113942 0.231712 0.464644 0.901926 1.669249 3.088417
2025-09-21 0.043759 0.101495 0.217414 0.457564 0.927934 1.785207 3.427361
2025-09-28 0.036429 0.089691 0.202161 0.445929 0.943396 1.883729 3.746520
2025-10-05 0.032236 0.084092 0.199037 0.459167 1.011145 2.091092 4.299104
2025-10-12 0.027572 0.076319 0.189860 0.458316 1.050798 2.250700 4.782472
2025-10-19 0.024320 0.071227 0.185723 0.467818 1.113692 2.464372 5.398567
2025-10-26 0.021650 0.066983 0.182770 0.479563 1.183374 2.700804 6.089504
2025-11-02 0.017871 0.058712 0.168300 0.461493 1.183511 2.791830 6.490669
2025-11-09 0.014449 0.050482 0.152146 0.436184 1.162716 2.834786 6.794519
2025-11-16 0.012262 0.045363 0.143190 0.427601 1.180738 2.966191 7.307936
2025-11-23 0.010404 0.040741 0.134603 0.418362 1.195642 3.092202 7.823966
2025-11-30 0.009356 0.038552 0.132654 0.427177 1.258407 3.338629 8.646524
2025-12-07 0.007778 0.033965 0.122369 0.410074 1.249690 3.411086 9.065518
2025-12-14 0.006692 0.030857 0.116033 0.403456 1.268560 3.554103 9.671547